Last Friday I replaced my usual Friday Tech Files with a deeper analysis of where the market is headed. Short version: markets may go up and down a bit but I believe the next 12 months will see the market doing worse than a good cash account.

Then I spent the weekend rooting around in data. I came up with plenty more details: the subprime fallout has not yet shown up in housing reports and will probably be deeper than the most reported projects, for example. Generally I am comfortable with my call and my position in largely cash (except for holding the Finance Wonk Portfolio).

Since the analysis was posted friday there is not a whole lot more to say now. This week will see one of two things: either bad news will be seen as moderating inflation and boost the market (most likely), or we will see more jitters and the market will drop (less likely, but more significant).