Typically after a long break the market will swoon a bit as people unload positions they have had to sit on for a while. This time the long market break is combined with a recent end-of year runup and thin trading the previous week. A neutral market would decline under these conditions on Wednesday, if the market manages gains we have a suprising bit of strength.
This week should provide a good sentiment barometer, and much of that will come about on Wednesday at 2pm EST, the time the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of their last meeting.
A quiet market (if it happens) still does not mean little action. Huge economic tides are moving beneath the surface. I think that soon I will be making my first calls ever on bonds - the investment category everbody forgets about while the market is going up, then wishes they had bought before the fall. This is a big shift from early last year when I actually took a financial position against bonds. Stay tuned for a detailed discussion.
